FOREX:2008
YEAR-END INTERVIEW
How it will begin and then it will continue 2008 of the Forex market? In order to know we have turned it some questions to a famous money changer in order to not only make the point of the Forex and the foreign exchange market, but also of general the economic picture. It answers Saverio Berlinzani, partner of Salex Spa, money changer between the most famous and continuations in Italy.
Pulling the sums the markets subprime how much have till now influenced on the foreign exchange market, that is the Forex market?
The markets subprime have caused great volatility, but in the substance they have not influenced radically on the Forex market having caused changes of trend or quant’altro. We can but say that the Subprime has caused a slowing down of the total economy that will be able tendentially to affect the relative expectations to the interest rates and therefore also on the future course of the exchange rates. If it is reasoned in so far as, every news macro, also less meaningful like impact regarding that one caused from the crisis of the mutua, has an effect on the foreign exchange market and therefore the answer could become affirmative.
According to she the USA are or they make us? The data macro USA say all the truth?
We think that the Americans do not have great opportunities in order to exit less from the situation in which they find themselves, than to reduce the quota theirs consumption and to save more, or in alternative to devaluate the dollar in order riequilibrare the trade balance them. They have chosen this second option that but risks to reveal a boomerang if the dollar lost that quality of more important currency in the international panorama. The compromise has been caught up with the levels substantially puts into effect them of the green ticket, that it allows to the Americans a recovery of the conjuncture, making to pay it to the countries with strong currencies.
Era November when the Central bank them of the Emirati Arabic announced the intention to increase of 10% the quota reservoir in euro, moreover the Quatar and the United Arab Emirates could be the first two Countries of the Golf to revalue their coins currently coupled to the dollar, dawn to me if meantime something is changed, which effects could have on the foreign exchange market these changes?
Such changes have already caused the ulterior devaluation of the dollar, with the diversification of the monetary reservoirs from the Central banks them Asian and of the Banks from she cited. Obviously the diversification has not been completed, and ulterior devaluations of the green ticket are possible, but against Asian currencies and not against Euro and Pound, whose countries are instead beginning to pay (at the level of data macro) the consequences of their excessive revaluation.
Alan Greenspan nozzle the alarm stagflation, she things would answer to Greenspan?
Sure if the danger inflation had to persist united to a fall of the conjuncture, the stagflation would be possible, but we think that the USA economy has in itself antibodies in order to avoid it and they are already caught a glimpse first marks them of the economic recovery.
Contest: shooting of the rope between euro and dollar who to the short one falls who resists?
Over 1.5000 they become possible participations from the Bce, and at least for the moment such level seems invalicabile. The first months of the 2008 will be crucial in order to define the course of next the two or three years. Our idea is that to preview a slow but constant revaluation of the dollar in the medium term.
In these days the not tipsy Canadian Dollar on the USA Dollar, is ended the beautiful days of the Cad?
The Canadian dollar has only corrected from levels of excess and own in these hours is resuming to go up. In the medium period but we think that the North American uniform has touched the maximums against dollar to 0.9050 and from them in some year we think can return in area 1.2000-1.3000.
Wanting to go against the euro which between these currencies to choose in the medium term, Zloty (gnp), Swedish Crown (sek), Norwegian Crown (nok)?
Probably and only on the corrections, we would suggest to still acquire Norwegian crowns in order to take advantage of differentiates them of favorable rate. Norway has the advantage of being a country clearly exporter of raw materials and the raw materials will remain attractive in the mean and long term. The levels in order to enter are 8.10-8.15 while between 7.85 and 7.80 the positions to favors of Crowns will have to be lightened.
For game and curiosity, but if it were the governor of the Fed like would act?
Perhaps I would push the Americans to consume less and to save than more in order not to become too much employee from abroad. Perhaps a healthy recession would be useful, since nobody is wanted to be loaded, between the partner of the USA, the responsibility to guide the total increase.
Fast a panoramic one of the foreign exchange market in this moment, like behaving itself?
Euro in decrease till 1.4210-60 thus like Cable in decrease till 1.9500 and then on new towards 1.4600 and 2.0200, and only then will decide the monetary game, and our feeling is that in the next few years the dollar will return to being favorite respect to Euro and pound. This will provoke also the climb, even if slow, of the Yen on Euro and Pound in the medium term as the UsdYen will remain stable between 105 and 125. Only a decided rise of the rates in Japan or a decided decrease in the rest of the world would make to go up the Japanese uniform structurally. For the time being it is not thus and also for the 2008 perspectives the same ones remain. Carry trades therefore to accumulate, but only on the decreases comprised between 215 and 200 on GbpJpy and 140,00 and 130,00 for EurYen.